David Hughes's posts

Your call,its your business.

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  Please keep personal attacks out of this forum.  We would like to create an open, welcoming atmosphere, where everyone is welcome to post with out it being personal.

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   -Nick

PV industries profit on wall street?
Dont know maybe you are talking about BP, solarex is theirs but i wouldnt put other good solar companies in their category.
Also not sure why you have the position that PV prices will not come down.Manufacturing processes for commercial panel production is very,very new.Less than a decade old and like i said in an earlier post,the US has not put money into companies that refine raw silicon.As this industry expands,(200% annually)that will fall inline no matter what congress does and 2007 is already projected for lower raw wafer and ingot prices.So prices will fall as companies build capital.You have to remember that the kernel start of PV manufacturing was started by oil companies that have had absolutely no incentive to offer people cost effective PV solutions.Im still not sure why they even got into it,im sure  someday someone will give me the history of that but i know for a fact they have not tried to bolster the industry with inter-industry materials networking.Such as securing silicon sources for exclusive PV use,offering workshops and seminars for PV professionals,offering training programs for PV specific careers-you name it.Any other booming business such as say computers saw all of this type of stuff early,hell IBM had basically trademarked the computer itsself-created a massive consumer base-- until they foolishly sold part of their interests to microsoft but point is,PV has pseudo stagnated while big oil was at the reins of the industry.Now that startups are now becoming capital players,you ARE seeing not only raw silicon prices dropping(2007)but per W and on panels.
All i can say is be patient and be a good ambassador for solar,i kinda doubt that people are that worried about prices as sales have only gone basically uh,atmospheric in the past few years but instead of trying to get them to not go with solar,how about tell them hey, did you know that with each panel you have you reduce co2 load in the atmosphere by 800lb a year?Hey remember that blackout a few weeks ago,yeah i had power all through that...you get the idea.

If you are going by brand,Evergreen or SunPower are very good panels.Both companies manufacture their own cells and are known in the industry as being innovative in that field.SP actually is the only manufacturer who makes back only contact cells with no aluminum grid which cuts conductance losses because the full face is utilized for solar collection.Their modules are more but the added effeciencies are worth it.(Think their guarantee is 80% of power for 25 years)25 is pretty standard now with encapsulation so i wouldnt worry about lifespan but an fyi would be to go to the nearest dealer with a multimeter and actually field test the modules you will be buying.
Guess you could look at SP and Evergreen as the Apple panels of PV and Kyocera,et al as the Dell or Lenovo of PV.
If you want comparisons,NREL(National Renewable Energy Laboratory) still does walkthroughs on production floors and independantly tests all manufacturers modules.   http://www.nrel.gov/solar    will have to search for the STC comparison charts...

Thx for reply.Yeah i figured as much but think one of your resellers has it.
Good tip on the car fan,hadnt thought of that.

As a small PV panel producer ill tell you in 2 words what keeps prices up.Raw silicon.It is not readily available to all countries and the main producer of multicrystalline silicon wafers is--Norway.Do they have more access to raw silicon?Dont know but they have a cost effective way to produce 100% pure silicone from silane gas which sets them apart.PV cells must utilize very pure hi-grade silicon for effeciencies better than 16% and THAT is why prices stay high because there are not a whole lot of technically and more important,feduciarily sound companies that process raw silicon for the PV industry.The other problem is that the companies that DO make it have other preshipping contracts with semiconductor companies like Intel.
All of this is solvable of course and we see now (200% annual growth since 2001) that if you put research $ into PV,there is a massive return market and absolutely wide open field for patentable breakthroughs and just unbelievable profits.Right now,solar is affordable but what you are really paying for is the u.s. govt.,(and others) who have not put the $ into silicon processing r&d, startups and PV r&d in general.Oil has gotten trillions over the years to formulate new gas additives that basically rot your injector system but still havent solved the PE value waste that occurs in ICE engines.50% of that gas ends up as co2,SO and smoke when it isnt completely burned...they have never solved that,never will but congress still throws them billions in relief even when they make record profits.Meanwhile PV gets sidetracked with the hydrogen red herring and thrown table scraps.(It seems 300$ is the set price for bribe money of the people)
Solution?Lobby your represenative to champion renewables or be fired.
Use solar now,not later(it funds individual startups to do further research to further reduce end-user cost).Quit using oil,in all its forms,it is a dead resource and everytime you drive your car,it keeps that dead resource alive.Get an electric,do a conversion,use veg oil,dont know if united nuclear has their H2 conversion kit ready yet..,ride a bike(its better for you)walk,carpool,whatever...
The market now is seeing huge demands but 2007 is going to be flush with silicon(quarter 1 and 2) and expect that wafer prices to drop slightly--from av.4.11$W to 3.95$W(finished) which will cause end-user prices to drop(producer specific) but to keep things going,people have to buy and want solar products.
It will come down,all of this is inevitable and at some point solar will cost about the same as a candybar but my only political anger at the whole thing is that we could have been doing,gone through all of these preliminary prices etc over 20 years ago.We had the technological capability and the money but due to oils domination and blacklisting of green technologies,we sit at 2006 looking at the beginnings of the real green(technically capable) revolution.
Thats the shame of it but al least we are getting there now...better now than never.Just keep subsidizing good companies like Evergreen,mine : )-ull see it soon) and other resellers like AES.Prices will drop as our companies expand but if you want two definitive villains to blame,look no further than Oil and the U.S. Govt..
Thanks for no money guys!We did it without ya anyway!

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